B. Gentry Lee

Major biological breakthroughs toward the end of the 20th century basically guaranteed that not just medicine and health but also the fundamentals of birth, death, and all phases of life will be drastically altered by continuing discoveries throughout the 21st century. But the "Biological Revolution" will be accompanied by equally dramatic change in many other areas. In geopolitics, the complete integration of Europe and the rapid emergence of China, India, and Brazil will create new economic and military alliances. The world will eventually agree to reduce the anthropogenic contribution to global warming, but the exact form of that agreement will evolve over time and ultimately have a significant impact on our daily lives. New Earths will be discovered, planets around other stars, where water is liquid and life is possible. At the personal level, the availability of ever more appealing and sophisticated "virtual worlds" will cause a large fraction of the world population to spend less and less time and energy in the "real world."

What will happen in the 21st century that will alter our daily lives as much as the cell phone and email? How can individuals, groups, and corporations keep track of the dizzying pace of change in so many dimensions and determine which innovations and discoveries will impact them the most? In "A Vision of the 21st Century," Gentry Lee will address the coming changes and suggest a blueprint for being successful in the decades ahead.

Global competition and intense marketplace pressure have combined to increase the demand for more and more innovation in new designs. But innovation is always accompanied by risk – risk that the design will not meet its technical objectives and/or will significantly overrun its target cost and schedule. Over several decades the American robotic planetary exploration program has evolved techniques for tracking and assessing the risks associated with engineering innovation. Using the Mars exploration program as the example case study, and highlighting both the successes and failures of the program, this talk will examine the balance between innovation and risk in engineering design.

The twin Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) landed successfully using airbags on the surface of the red planet in January 2004 after decelerating from over 10,000 mph to 20 mph in just six minutes. Their sister mission, Phoenix, landed gently on three legs in the Martian arctic in May 2008. In the summer of 2005, the Deep Impact robotic spacecraft smashed into the comet Tempel 1 traveling at a closing velocity of over 25,000 mph, while another, parent spacecraft photographed the collision. Space missions like these are enormous engineering challenges and require the use of innovative new technology to be successful. However, using new technology has formidable risks. Balancing the advantages of innovation against its inherent risks is one of the most critical of all design processes. Achieving that balance requires a careful understanding of "what bad things might happen" and a systematic approach to mitigating those risks throughout the life cycle of a product or a project.