Global Economics Post Obama
How will the world’s political economy change with the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States? Will there actually be a trade war between China and the United States or was this just political rhetoric? How will America’s relationship with the European Union ( our major trading partner) change? Will America retreat from Globalization and will Russia play any role in this? And of course what about Brexit?
Edward Goldberg is one of the leading forward thinkers on Globalization and International Political Economy. His new book The Joint Ventured Nation: Why America Needs A New Foreign Policy puts globalization in a historic context looking at how America and the world became globalized, and how America’s foreign policy needs to change to reflect this.
China, Europe & the US: Global Rivals or Joint Venture Partners?
On the eve of World War I, France, England, Russia, Germany, and Austria did not consider destabilization of their currency, the equity position of their leading banks, negative growth and capital outflows as part of their decision making process. And economics was never a part of the decision matrix in Nixon and Kissinger’s historic trip to China in 1972. Now rumors can come out of Beijing that China might consider stimulating its economy, and the New York stock exchange immediately bumps up, as if Janet Yellen announced further monetary easing.
Old fashioned Realpolitik, the idea that countries mainly act for their own practical self-interest, has now been confronted by globalization and with it the concept that a country’s economic well-being is now directly tied to the economic health of its largest trading partners. States might be rivals, but today they are also each other’s joint ventured partners. Just look at the fact that General Motors’ major market is now China, or that that almost 50% of the revenues for the companies listed on the S&P 500 come from outside the U.S. markets.
For this talk Edward Goldberg draws on his unique perspective as one of the leading forward thinkers in Globalization and International Political Economy to discuss how economics and finance are putting restraints on the historic behavior of countries. In a presentation that’s as relevant as the day’s headlines, Edward Goldberg looks at what is truly important in international relations today.
The Impotent Hegemon – The U.S. Federal Reserve
If a hegemon is a single country above other countries indirectly or directly empowered to make the rules of the game - then what do you call an institution that is politically independent yet part of a sovereign government that does the same thing – the Federal Reserve System of the United States, commonly known as the Fed.
Few American governmental institutions have as much power over the individual lives of people in other countries as the Fed. The Fed’s power overseas is almost subrosa in its nature; it has no drones, no boots on the ground or aircraft carriers on the sea. In fact by law it has no overseas offices. But in its power to impact geopolitical events and its ability to affect the lives of so many people, the Fed’s foreign influence is in many ways as great as the military prowess of the United States, except in times of total war.
Edward Goldberg, an internationally recognized expert on globalization who teaches emerging markets and International Political Economy at New York University's Center for Global Affairs, leads his audience on an important discussion of how globalization knighted the Fed with this power, how the Fed’s independent actions now affect countries, companies and the global political climate, and what does this mean for the United states and for the world.
The Refusenik – Russia the Non-Globalized Nation
Of the 10 largest nations by GDP in the world only one is not globalized. The famous Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy, begins Anna Karenina with his now famous words, “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
And this is so true when dealing with globalization’s most powerful rejectionist state Russia; unhappy in many of its own ways, often acting in the manner of the dangerous disgruntled adolescent. Russia is the antithesis of economically interlinked globalized countries- much more of a 19th-century country than a 21st-century country.
Edward Goldberg leads his audience on a tour of why this is so and how it affects the world.
Rising Powers/Falling Powers – How Globalization has Changed the Geo-Political Game
One of the key principles taught in International Relations is that a rising power threatens the world order. The example always given is pre-World War I Germany and its rapid economic rise challenging England’s dominance.
Globalization has changed this. The rising globalized power (China) is to invested in the system, to economically intertwined to radically shake up the existing order. It is the declining power Russia that threatens the global order, the country that never really globalized, that has nothing to lose by trying to reshuffle the deck.
Edward Goldberg looks at this provocative topic that is right out of today’s headlines and discusses what it means for the United States and the rest of the world.
China & The One-Two Punch
In the sport of boxing a one-two punch is a combination of two blows, normally a left followed by a right cross which is devastating to the opponent. Well, economics has delivered a one-two punch to China. First in what is called Convergence Theory followed by what is known as the Lewis Turning Point Theory. How China recovers from these blows will determine not only China’s future but also the future of the world.
Convergence theory is about very rapid economic growth rates that occur when a nation is catching up, building steel mills, housing and highways etc. It asked the question what happens to the growth rate when the country doesn't need any more steel mills? While the Lewis Turning Point is an economic term for when a labor-intensive country uses up their cheap labor.
Edward Goldberg in this thought provoking talk discusses how these two theories have thrown the China that the world has know for the past 20 years off its projectory. He discusses if and how Chinese leadership can overcome these problems and what will be the ramifications of any new policy for both global economics and international politics.