Robin Hanson

Economist, Futurist & Father of Prediction Markets

Robin Hanson

Economist, Futurist & Father of Prediction Markets

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Biography

Robin Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University, and was research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University until that closed in 2024. He has a doctorate in social science from California Institute of Technology, master's degrees in physics and philosophy from the University of Chicago, and nine years experience as a research programmer, at Lockheed and NASA.

Professor Hanson has 6958 citations, and over ninety academic publications, including in Algorithmica, Applied Optics, Astrophysical Journal, Communications of the ACM, Economics Letters, Economica, Econometrica, Economics of Governance, Foundations of Physics, IEEE Intelligent Systems, Information Systems Frontiers, Innovations, International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Journal of Law Economics and Policy, Journal of Political Philosophy, Journal of Prediction Markets, Journal of Public Economics, Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, Medical Hypotheses, Proceedings of the Royal Society, Public Choice, Science, Social Epistemology, Social Philosophy and Policy, and Theory and Decision.

Oxford University Press published his book The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth in June 2016, and his book The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life, co-authored with Kevin Simler, in January, 2018. Professor Hanson has 1100 media mentions, given 400 invited talks, and his blog OvercomingBias.com has had eight million visits.

Professor Hanson has pioneered prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, since 1988. He was the first to write in detail about creating and subsidizing markets to gain better estimates on a wide variety of important topics. He was a principal architect of the first internal corporate markets, at Xanadu in 1990, of the first web markets, the Foresight Exchange since 1994, of DARPA's Policy Analysis Market, from 2001 to 2003, and of IARPA's combinatorial markets DAGGRE and SCICAST from 2010 to 2015. Professor Hanson developed new technologies for conditional, combinatorial, and intermediated trading, and studied insider trading, manipulation, and other foul play. He has written and spoken widely on the application of idea futures to business and policy, and has advised many ventures. He suggests "futarchy", a form of governance based on prediction markets.

Robin has diverse research interests, with papers on spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, group insurance, product bans, evolutionary psychology and bioethics of health care, voter information incentives, incentives to fake expertise, Bayesian classification, agreeing to disagree, self-deception in disagreement, probability elicitation, wiretaps, image reconstruction, the history of science prizes, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence, and interstellar colonization.

He coined the phrase "The Great Filter", numerically estimated it via a model of "Grabby Aliens", and has many million view videos, mostly on this topic (7.9M, 1.6M, 0.4M, 0.9M, 1.5M). Recently, he developed a theory of the sacred, wrote on AI risk, and focused on the world fertlity fall and cultural drift as its underlyhing cause.

Speaker Videos

Cultural Drift — Robin Hanson

DAPPCON 2025: Launching Futarchy - Kelvin Santos & Robin Hanson

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Revolution Strategies

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Speech Topics

The Future of Forecasting: How Prediction Markets Are Changing the World

Prediction markets have moved from a niche concept to a growing force in finance, business, and public discourse. Robin Hanson, one of the field's earliest pioneers, explores how markets designed to aggregate information can often outperform traditional forecasting methods and provide valuable insight into future events.

Drawing on decades of research and the recent rise of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Hanson examines why prediction markets are gaining momentum, where the industry is headed, and how these tools could reshape decision-making across business, government, and society.

When Machines Take Over: The Future of Work, Life & Society

Artificial intelligence is transforming the way we work, communicate, and make decisions. But what happens when these technologies become far more capable than they are today? Robin Hanson takes audiences beyond current AI headlines to explore the long-term implications of intelligent machines on jobs, relationships, economics, and daily life.

Combining economics, futurism, and decades of research into technological change, Hanson offers a provocative look at how humanity may adapt—and thrive—in a world increasingly shaped by advanced automation.

Smarter Decisions: How Prediction Markets Will Transform Leadership

Organizations spend enormous resources trying to predict outcomes and make better decisions. Robin Hanson argues that prediction and decision markets may become one of the most powerful management tools of the future, helping leaders make more informed choices about strategy, investments, talent, and organizational performance.

Through practical examples and future-focused scenarios, Hanson explores how these markets could influence everything from CEO evaluations and major investments to mergers, acquisitions, and long-term planning, offering a glimpse into the future of leadership and governance.

The Hidden Forces Behind Human Behavior

People often believe they know why they make decisions, but the real motivations are not always obvious. Robin Hanson explores the hidden incentives that shape human behavior across business, politics, relationships, and society, revealing how actions are often driven by motives we rarely acknowledge.

Combining economics, psychology, and social science, Hanson challenges audiences to look beyond surface explanations and gain a deeper understanding of how individuals, organizations, and institutions actually function.

UFOs, Aliens & the Unknown: Thinking Rationally About the Impossible

Few subjects capture the public imagination like UFOs, yet discussions are often dominated by speculation and sensationalism. Robin Hanson approaches the topic from a different perspective, applying economics, probability, and scientific reasoning to examine how we should evaluate extraordinary claims and unexplained phenomena.

Drawing on his work studying the distribution of intelligent life in the universe, Hanson explores what evidence deserves serious attention, how experts assess competing explanations, and what the UFO debate can teach us about uncertainty, evidence, and rational thinking.